Extending our lead times tropical system detection is going to be a big help on closing the gap with ECMWF” said AerisWeather meteorologist Justin Deal. They have shown case after case of v16 pinning down the correct positioning as significantly as multiple days before v15. “ They have shown significantly improved frontal boundary and tropical system placements in the medium range. Can you prove this new iteration of GFS is, in fact, comparable or superior to ECMWF? Early results from NOAA’s Model Evaluation Group (MEG) are encouraging. I am hopeful, but like every other meteorologist, I will withhold judgement until I see tangible proof that GFSv16 is more competitive.
Uccellini, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s National Weather Service, in a recent press release.
“ This substantial upgrade to the GFS, along with ongoing upgrades to our supercomputing capacity, demonstrates our commitment to advancing weather forecasting to fulfill our mission of protecting life and property,” said Louis W. New data assimilation capabilities from satellites and aircraft should improve GFSv16 model performance significantly over time. Resolution will increase from 64 to 127 vertical levels, with improved physics and a global wave model (“ WaveWatchIII”). And recently announced updates to NOAA’s flagship GFS model leave me hopeful that the accuracy gap may finally shrink over time. The result: ECMWF is arguably the best weather model on the planet.Ī metaphor for life, weather modeling is a work in progress – a journey, not a destination. There are other factors involved, including demonstrably better data assimilation (getting the most recent observations into the ECMWF model faster) and a steady pipeline of meteorological research (and better physics) being applied to improve the ECMWF model at a quicker pace. All efforts and resources have been focused into perfecting this one weather simulation. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs dozens of models, ECMWF runs one global model at high resolution. The European model is run by The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. Not perfect, but stepping back and looking at the big picture…which prediction of future weather is better in most real-world scenarios? ECMWF wins most days.Īt the risk of oversimplification, there are many reasons why ECMWF is better. And in recent years many meteorologists have reached the conclusion that I have over time: ECMWF, The European Model, is consistently more accurate. Like most people I defer to what works, based on personal experience. Graphic courtesy of and meteorologist Ryan Maue. Believe it or not, we want to get the forecast right!ĮCMWF vs. Meteorologists examine scores of models, looking for consistency, continuity, and trends – ultimately choosing a blend of model solutions that has the highest probability of coming true. But here’s the thing: if you’re sanding a table or building a deck you want to use the best tools at your disposal, right? So it goes with weather forecasting. Of course I’m rooting for the “American Model”, the GFS or Global Forecast System, to win. Are you with Team GFS or Team ECMWF, the “European Model”? I hate to pick sides, but as a meteorologist I defer to the weather model that, consistently, is most accurate.